Sep 5, 2007

Population trend for ASEAN's case


WITHOUT his permission, I attached this paper, coz its a good research for catch the condition of South-east Asia's population. Ladies and Gentlemen, who is he? He is Mr Shigesato Takahashi --the Deputy Director-General at National Institute of Population and Social Security Research Japan. He ever presented “The Ageing of the Population and its Implications for Health and Social Policies” to the delegations of Indonesia who visit Japan in the first week of September 2007. He told about Population trend and demographic transition of ASEAN countries.
The population growth rate in countries of ASEAN has shown the tendency to decrease for the past 30 years. The annual average population growth rate was from 2 per cent to 3 per cent in most countries of this region during the 1950's and 1970's.
On the other hand, a high birth rate and a high mortality rate that continued for a.long time have started to decline to the level of a low birth rate and a low mortality rate in the ASEAN region in the 1950's.
Such demographic transition, that is, a transition from a high fertility and mortality regime to a low fertility and mortality regime, which has brought about a population explosion since World War II, appears to have finally reached the last stage in East Asia and will approach it by the end of the 1st quarter of this century in the ASEAN region in general.
The key factor associated with demographic transition is fertility transition of course, that is, the change from the total fertility rate (TFR: the average number of children per woman would have in their life time) with 5 or more children per woman to the level of around 2 children per woman.
The decline of the total fertility rate had already started from the 1960's in some ASEAN countries such as Singapore and Thailand as a result of the rapid spread of family planning. Their total fertility rate has declined from more than 5 children per woman to the level of less than two children per woman in the 2000-2005 period (Gubhaju, 2007). In other ASEAN countries, fertility has already declined considerably, except Cambodia and Lao PDR in which fertility had just started to decline from more than 6 children per woman from the middle of the 1980s.
In countries such as Vietnam and Lao PDR, Philippines, Myanmar, Cambodia, Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, and Malaysia, fertility remained at a high level of fertility (5 or more children per woman) during the period 1970-1975. It is interesting to note that these countries experienced remarkable declines in fertility from a high level to a transitional level (3.0 to 4.9 children per woman) during the periods 1970-1975 and 1985-1990. In the 2000-2005 period, the total fertility rate among these countries except the Philippines showed a range of 2.2 to 2.9 children per woman, near that of the population replacement level.
It is interesting to note that these countries experienced remarkable declines in fertility from a high level to a transitional level (3.0 to 4.9 children per woman) during the 1970-1975 and. 1985-1990 periods. In countries such as Cambodia, the Lao PDR, and the Philippines, their total fertility rate declined to the level of a transitional stage during the 1985-1990 period and the 2000-2005 period.
The level of fertility in ASEAN countries will eventually reach the replacement level, about 2 children per woman, in the first quarter of this century. In other ASEAN countries, the annual population growth rate, after having declined from its peak of 2 to 3 per cent, will remain more than 1 per cent for the time being and decline to below 1 per cent by the middle of this century, except for Cambodia and Lao PDR.

To be continued with:
“Demographic Transition and Population Bonus”